Grain Market Update: Rice Prices and Trends
World rice prices have seen a decline in recent weeks, except in the United States, where they have remained stable. This stability in the US market has raised concerns about its international competitiveness.
According to the Rice Outlook Report released on April 15 by the Economic Research Service (ERS) of the US Department of Agriculture, the trading prices for most grades of regular whole grain milled rice from Thailand have decreased by 6% to 7%. This decline can be attributed to the weakening of the Thai baht and the beginning of the dry-season crop entering the export market. Despite these declines, Thailand’s rice prices continue to be supported by India’s export bans and restrictions. For the week ending April 9, Thailand’s 100% Grade B long-grain milled rice for export was quoted at $590 per tonne, the lowest since mid-November.
Vietnam has also seen a decline in rice prices, specifically for 5% brokens, which dropped $10 per tonne from the previous month. This can be attributed to the progress of the winter-spring crop, which is Vietnam’s largest rice crop and contributes significantly to its rice exports.
On the other hand, Pakistan has experienced falling rice prices due to a bumper crop that has exceeded the record global demand. Harvests in Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay have also led to a decline in prices in these countries.
Overall, world rice prices were 1.7% lower in March 2024 compared to February 2024, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). While prices were at an eight-month low, they were still 14% higher than in March 2023, mainly due to strong Indica prices. Despite a monthly fall of 1.6% in March, Indica quotations remained significantly higher compared to the same period in 2023.
The market undertone remained soft in Asia in March, as demand in Indonesia was insufficient to offset supply-side pressure. Vietnam experienced a decline in quotations as the dong eased against the US dollar and the winter-spring harvest peaked. Thailand, India, and Pakistan also faced price trends influenced by other origins and offseason harvests.
In conclusion, while world rice prices have softened in recent weeks, the stability of prices in the United States raises concerns about its international competitiveness. Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan have experienced declines in prices due to various factors such as currency fluctuations, harvest progress, and bumper crops. The market undertone remains soft in Asia, with demand unable to offset supply-side pressure. Despite these fluctuations, the rice market overall remains firm and positive.
Source: [World Grain](https://www.world-grain.com)