Global Rice News

Wheat stocks in government warehouses have reached a seven-year low, with only 16.4 million tonnes (mt) remaining as of January 1. However, there is no immediate cause for concern as these stocks are still higher than the minimum buffer of 13.8 mt required for the next three months. The government has also ensured that there are sufficient rice stocks to compensate for any shortfall in wheat. This should help keep both cereal and overall retail food inflation under control until the national elections scheduled for April-May.

To address the current situation, the government has implemented various measures. These include banning wheat and non-basmati white rice exports, limiting the quantity of wheat that large retailers and traders can hold to 1,000 tonnes, and selling grain from the Food Corporation of India’s stocks in the open market. These measures are expected to effectively manage the supply and demand dynamics in the market.

However, the situation could become more challenging after the elections. If the upcoming wheat crop, which will only be harvested from March-end, turns out to be unfavorable, the next government will have to address the resulting supply challenge. In the past, the Narendra Modi government has taken proactive steps to manage the supply of pulses and edible oils by allowing imports with low or no duties until March 31, 2025. However, similar measures have not been seen in the case of wheat, rice, and sugar. This may be due to the fact that the growers of these crops have greater political organization compared to pulses or oilseeds farmers.

While the government has restricted exports and imposed curbs on diverting cane juice and intermediate-stage molasses for ethanol production, it has not opened up imports. However, given the delicate supply situation, where even the new sugar season has started with six-year-low stocks and uncertainty around actual production, imports may become necessary in the near future.

In conclusion, while the current wheat stocks are sufficient to meet the operational requirements and strategic reserve, the post-election scenario may present supply challenges if the upcoming wheat crop is not favorable. The government has taken measures to manage the current situation, but future imports may be necessary to maintain stability in the market.

Source: [Indian Express](https://indianexpress.com)