December crop report: Corn stocks decline, exports surge according to latest WASDE.
Published on: December 12, 2023.
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Wheat Outlook for 2023/24
The latest World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (Dec. 8, 2023) from the USDA provide an updated outlook for various agricultural commodities. One of the highlights is the forecast for U.S. wheat in the 2023/24 season. The report states that there will be unchanged supplies and domestic use, higher exports, and reduced ending stocks for wheat in the United States.
Exports of wheat are expected to increase by 25 million bushels to reach 725 million bushels. This increase is primarily due to several large recent export sales of Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat to China. Specifically, SRW exports are projected to rise by 30 million bushels to 175 million bushels, the highest level since the 2013/14 season. On the other hand, white wheat exports are anticipated to decrease by 5 million bushels to 155 million bushels due to a slow pace of sales and shipments.
As a result of these changes, the projected ending stocks for all types of wheat in the United States are forecasted to decrease by 25 million bushels to 659 million bushels. Despite the reduction, ending stocks will remain 13 percent higher than the previous year. Additionally, the season-average farm price for wheat is expected to rise by $0.10 per bushel to reach $7.30. This increase is driven by lower projected stocks, prices reported by the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) so far, and price expectations for the rest of the marketing year.
In terms of the global wheat outlook for 2023/24, there will be higher supplies, consumption, and trade, but reduced stocks. Supplies are projected to increase by 1.3 million tons to reach 1,052.9 million tons. This is mainly due to higher government production estimates for Australia and Canada, partially offset by a reduction for Brazil. Global consumption is expected to rise by 1.8 million tons to 794.7 million tons. The increase is driven by higher feed and residual use in the European Union (EU), South Korea, and Thailand, as well as increased food, seed, and industrial use in China. World trade is forecasted to increase by 2.2 million tons to 207.2 million tons, with Australia, the United States, Canada, and Ukraine all expected to export more wheat. Finally, global ending stocks are projected to decrease by 0.5 million tons to 258.2 million, the lowest level since the 2015/16 season.
The full report includes detailed information on other commodities such as coarse grains, rice, oilseeds, and livestock, poultry, and dairy. For more information, please visit the source article: Source.
