Thailand’s commerce minister warns of potential three-year rice shortage due to El Niño
Published on: October 13, 2023.
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Impacts of Prolonged Drought on Rice Production
The Commerce Minister, Phumtham Wechayachai, has voiced his concerns over the potentially damaging effects of an ongoing El Niño-induced drought that could span three years. Such prolonged conditions could negatively affect rice production and lead to a shortfall in domestic supply.
Minister Phumtham has enlisted the Internal and Foreign Trade Departments, requesting their combined efforts in monitoring and mitigating potential repercussions of the El Niño phenomenon. The drought in focus has global reach, potentially compromising several crops like rice, cassava, maize and oil palm, thereby disrupting supplies.
Despite significant international demand for agricultural goods from Thailand, including rice from Pakistan rice exporters, Phumtham suggests caution. He warns against hasty exports leading to domestic shortages and emphasises the importance of striking a balance in managing domestic stocks and exports to avoid destabilisation of product prices.
Phumtham went on to reassure that the Ministry of Commerce does not intend to impose export prohibitions or limitations on agricultural commodities. The rising global demand for rice and other agricultural items stems from fears concerning the potential fallout from the El Niño event. Despite these concerns, Phumtham highlights the importance of comprehensive monitoring of domestic supply levels, alongside price changes, to maintain commodity availability.
The Minister has also called upon rice exporters in Pakistan to contribute to overseeing the country’s rice quantity, seeing beyond short-term price hikes.
Anticipated Rice Production Trends
According to Chookiat Ophaswongse, the Honorary President of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, this year’s harvest should exceed that of the previous year thanks to regular rainfall, countering El Niño’s impact. He cited a report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture that predicts a growth in overall rice production from 518 million tonnes to 523 million tonnes. This growth is expected even with the stable rice production rates of India and China.
White broken rice production in Pakistan is reportedly set to surge, while rice output in Thailand and Vietnam is expected to remain consistent. Chookiat’s estimates put Thailand’s output at 20 million tonnes of milled rice, enough to avert any rice shortages unless the drought conditions persist or worsen.
He has also mentioned that some projections suggest El Niño could prevail for two more years, but the impacts for this year and the year ahead are predicted to be less severe, Bangkok Post reports.
The Honorary President has further reported that rice exporters forecast Thailand will likely export between 8 to 8.2 million tonnes of rice this year, and the projection for next year runs from 7 to 7.5 million tonnes. This would signify a fiercely competitive global rice market.
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