Dec Export Growth in Thailand Falls Short of Forecast; Modest Increase Expected in 2024
Published on: January 26, 2024.
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**Thailand Exports Rise for Fifth Consecutive Month, Falling Short of Expectations**
Thailand’s exports experienced a fifth consecutive month of growth in December, although at a slower pace than anticipated. The commerce ministry disclosed that customs-based exports rose by 4.7% compared to the previous year. However, this figure is below the 6.0% increase that analysts had predicted in a Reuters poll. Additionally, December exports declined by 2.9% compared to the preceding month.
Experts believe that the global supply chain and geopolitical problems that impact international trade are crucial factors that require close monitoring. These issues could potentially affect future exports, says the ministry. Further concerns arise from China’s economic slowdown, which is anticipated to significantly impact Thai exports this year. In 2023, China constituted Thailand’s second-largest export market, accounting for 12% of the total, following the United States with a 17.2% share.
The ministry’s permanent secretary, Keerati Rushchano, states that achieving the target of 1% to 2% export growth in 2024 will be challenging after a 1% decline in exports last year. Notably, while car, car parts, and electronics exports increased in December, the shipment of chemicals declined.
From a different perspective, rice exports witnessed positive growth. In December, rice export volumes rose by 4.1% compared to the previous year, with a staggering 27% increase in value. Throughout 2023, rice shipments reached 8.76 million metric tons, reflecting a 13.7% rise. This surge in rice exports can be attributed to concerns surrounding food security, as highlighted by Keerati.
Regarding specific destinations, exports to the United States experienced a modest 0.3% increase in comparison to the previous year. Conversely, exports to Japan declined by 3.7%, while those to China displayed growth of 2%.
Simultaneously, December imports in Thailand registered a year-on-year decline of 3.1%, contributing to a trade surplus of $0.97 billion. Overall, imports for the full year of 2023 decreased by 3.8% annually, resulting in a trade deficit of $5.2 billion.
*Source: [SaltWire](https://www.saltwire.com) (opens in a new window)*
