Global Rice News

Rates for Thai Grains Expected to Soften

The price of Thai rice is expected to decrease in the final two months of the year as the new harvest is released, according to traders. However, Thailand’s rice will remain competitive due to a favorable exchange rate, says the Thai Rice Exporters Association. Currently, Thai 5% white rice is priced at $586 per tonne, while Vietnam and Pakistan have prices ranging from $643-647 and $563-567 per tonne, respectively.

Robust Demand for Thai Rice

Despite the expected price dip, demand for Thai rice remains strong, especially from Indonesia. The association had previously predicted that rice exports would reach approximately 800,000 tonnes in October due to a significant backlog of rice commitments by exporters. Importers in ASEAN countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia, along with regular markets in Africa, the Middle East, and the US, are increasing their imports of Thai rice to address shortages and potential price impacts in their respective countries.

Rice Exports on the Rise

In September, rice exports reached 807,776 tonnes with a value of 17.2 billion baht, representing a 26.5% increase in quantity and a 48.1% rise in value compared to August. This increase can be attributed to higher exports of parboiled and broken rice as importers rush to secure reserves for upcoming year-end festivities and compensate for reduced stocks in their countries.

Market Insights and Forecasts

The global rice market is expected to remain tight due to India’s export restrictions, which may last until the beginning of 2024. As a result, potential rice buyers may turn to Thai rice. The Thai Rice Exporters’ Association forecasts that rice exports in October will reach approximately 800,000 tonnes. However, for the year ahead, rice exports may decrease to 7.5 million tonnes as India starts to deliver rice from agreements with the Philippines, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Thailand’s export share may also be affected by India’s increased rice exports in the latter half of 2024.

Conclusion

Despite the anticipated decrease in rice prices, Thai rice remains competitive in the global market. Demand for Thai rice remains robust, with notable demand from Indonesia. Traders are optimistic about future export prospects, although challenges may arise due to India’s increasing rice exports and political reasons affecting import choices by countries like Iraq. Overall, the Thai rice industry continues to thrive and adapt to market dynamics.

Source: Bangkok Post