Drop in Kharif crop yield, including rice, anticipated due to erratic monsoon
Published on: October 29, 2023.
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Production of Rice Expected to Decrease in 2023-24 Season
The production of rice, the largest cereal crop during the kharif season, is projected to decline by 3.79 per cent in the 2023-24 season to 106.31 million tonnes, compared to the previous year’s production of 110.5 million tonnes. This decline can be attributed to an uneven monsoon, despite higher acreage than usual.
The first advanced estimate of kharif foodgrain production, released recently, suggests that the production of all major kharif crops this year may decrease. Moong, urad, soybean, and sugarcane are among the crops leading this decline. This has been caused by a prolonged dry spell in August and an uneven monsoon at the beginning of the season.
Prior to this estimate, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) had already indicated that rice production during the kharif season might decrease by at least two million tonnes.
The official statement released states that the first production assessment for the 2023-24 (Kharif) season is mainly based on the average yield of the past three years and may be subject to revision based on actual crop-cutting experiments.
In regard to the decrease in rice production, the statement mentions that the area under rice cultivation is estimated to be higher by approximately 200,000 hectares compared to the previous year’s final estimate, and by around 450,000 hectares compared to the average rice cultivation area.
The statement also states that rice production is expected to surpass the average production of the past few years.
If kharif production experiences a significant decline, it may pose difficulties for the government’s efforts to control food inflation and increase reliance on imported items such as edible oils and pulses.
Impact of Monsoon
The southwest monsoon this year has been highly irregular and imbalanced primarily due to the adverse effects of El Niño.
Initially, the rains arrived late and were not substantial, resulting in a nearly 9 per cent rainfall deficit in June.
When the rainfall did pick up, it became abundant, leading to a surplus of 13 per cent in July.
However, the rains took a significant break in August, resulting in a record 36 per cent monsoon deficiency for the month. This was one of the highest deficiencies in recent history.
Just as the country was preparing for drought-like conditions, it started raining again in September.
Overall, the monsoon season from June to September ended with a 5.6 per cent rainfall deficit, classifying it as ‘below normal,’ which is the first time in over four years.
Across India, the total rainfall from June 1 to September 30 was approximately 821 millimetres, compared to the normal level of 869 millimetres.
This indicates that the monsoon season concluded with approximately 94 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) in terms of rainfall.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had predicted that rainfall would be approximately 96 per cent of the LPA, with a model error of plus or minus 4 per cent.
Kharif Crops Production 2023-24
Crops
- 2022-23: Rice – 110.5 million tonnes
- 2023-24: Rice – 106.31 million tonnes
- % Change: -3.79
Other Significant Crops:
- Maize: 23.67 million tonnes
- Tur: 3.31 million tonnes
- Moong: 1.71 million tonnes
- Urad: 1.76 million tonnes
- Total Foodgrains: 155.71 million tonnes
- Groundnut: 8.56 million tonnes
- Soybean: 14.98 million tonnes
- Sugarcane: 490.53 million tonnes
- Cotton: 33.66 million tonnes
- Jute: 8.98 million tonnes
*As per the final estimate for 2022-23
**As per the first advanced estimate released on October 27, 2023
Source: Business Standard
