Philippines May Not Need to Increase Rice Imports: Government Decides to Reconsider Strategy
Published on: April 13, 2024.
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Improving Harvests in the Philippines Amidst El Niño Conditions
Despite the dry conditions caused by El Niño, the Philippines is experiencing improved harvests, which may result in no increase in the inflow of imported milled rice for the full year of 2024. This estimation comes from the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) latest forecasts.
According to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service report, it has lowered its rice import forecast for the Philippines to 3.9 million metric tons (MT) from its previous projection of 4.1 million MT, citing a “larger crop.” This revised forecast matches the level of Philippine rice imports in 2023. Over the past four years, rice imports in the Philippines have steadily increased, reaching 2.45 million MT in 2020.
Meanwhile, the USDA has raised its forecast for Philippine milled rice output for this year to 12.6 million MT from its previous estimate of 12.3 million MT.
Despite these changes, the USDA’s estimate for total global rice imports remains nearly unchanged at 53.4 million MT. The estimate for global rice exports has also slightly increased to 53.4 million MT.
As of April 4, rice imports into the Philippines have exceeded 1 million MT. Vietnam remains the leading source of milled rice shipments to the Philippines, accounting for 62.4 percent or 734,583 MT of the total. Thailand comes in second with 251,738 MT, while Pakistan places third with 124,038 MT.
Farmers in the Philippines have expressed concerns over the anticipated decline in rice production due to El Niño during the lean months of July to September. Importers, therefore, are expected to source more imported rice to meet the demand for the staple food. Rice import purchases in the beginning of this year have been surprisingly high despite global prices being about 30 percent higher compared to the same period last year.
With Vietnam being the preferred source of milled rice due to lower prices compared to Thailand and Pakistan, it remains to be seen how the rice market in the Philippines will fare for the rest of the year.
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