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Pakistan’s Water Crisis: A Neglected Challenge

While political instability, economic uncertainty, and climate shocks continue to dominate Islamabad’s attention, Pakistan’s water crisis remains a long-term challenge that needs urgent addressing. Unequal access to clean water is exacerbating existing socioeconomic disparities and has the potential to ignite civil unrest amid macroeconomic instability. To compound the issue, aging infrastructure, weak water governance, and the unpredictable impact of climate shocks are solidifying water security as a threat multiplier for both the state and society.

Reforms to combat these issues are stifled by elite interests tied to water-intensive agriculture. Furthermore, the lack of policy continuity from one government to another and uncertain political timelines add to the complexity of reform efforts. International lenders also have failed to prioritize water security when providing external assistance to Pakistan, resulting in agricultural policies that borrow resources from current and future generations to maintain the status quo.

The Need for Immediate Action

A combination of domestic and international factors suggests that now is the time to address the water crisis in Pakistan. As the impacts of climate change intensify, water insecurity is becoming increasingly politically relevant. The devastating floods in 2022 served as a stark reminder of the country’s vulnerability. Additionally, international financial institutions and foreign investors are demanding tangible policy changes and greater accountability.

Policymakers in Pakistan have the power to improve domestic water security through policies that incentivize intersectoral transfers within the water-intensive agricultural sector, enhance export competitiveness in non-agricultural industries, and reform outdated legislation that taxes water usage unfairly. International financial institutions and bilateral lenders can also play a role in incentivizing these changes by adopting environmentally conscious lending, trade, and investment practices.

The implications of failing to address the water crisis are severe. Without meaningful structural changes in the agricultural sector, water scarcity will become one of the country’s most pressing challenges, with potential implications for regional stability.

The Reality of Pakistan’s Water Crisis

On the surface, Pakistan seems to have abundant water resources. However, millions of Pakistanis still lack access to clean water. The World Health Organization recommends 50 to 100 liters of water per person per day for a dignified life. Pakistan’s total water availability amounts to approximately 193 million acre-feet (MAF) annually to meet the domestic demand of its population. Despite this, water insecurity persists due to issues of equity, access, and intersectoral distribution rather than absolute scarcity.

Insufficient supply of clean water directly or indirectly leads to 40 percent of all annual excess deaths in Pakistan according to the United Nations. Less than 40 percent of households in Karachi, one of the world’s most populous cities, have access to piped water. Drought conditions are prevalent in rural areas, triggering migration to urban centers. Ironically, Pakistan is witnessing a surge in upscale private housing societies that rely heavily on water-intensive urban beautification projects. This imbalance highlights the issue of inequitable access to water and the need for a paradigm shift in the country’s approach to water security.

The Role of Agriculture in the Water Crisis

Pakistan allocates a significant portion of its water supply to water-intensive crops like rice, wheat, sugar cane, and cotton. Policies that do not account for the true cost of water in agricultural production incentivize the cultivation of these crops. For example, the Canal and Drainage Act (1873) allows consumers of canal irrigation to pay a flat water tax fee, which does not reflect the actual value of water. In contrast, households in Karachi pay significantly higher rates for unreliable water tanker services.

Agricultural reform is essential to address the water crisis in Pakistan. While crops like rice and wheat are essential for food security, cash crops like sugar and cotton consume a disproportionate amount of water resources. Sugar cane alone accounts for 42 percent of the total annual household water demand in the country. Reforms in the sugar sector may face resistance due to the significant political influence of sugar barons. Efforts should instead focus on reforming the cotton sector, which has a lower political cost and can pave the way for broader agricultural reforms.

Exporting Water and the Challenge Ahead

Pakistan’s heavy reliance on water-intensive cotton exports makes it the largest exporter of “virtual groundwater” in the world, surpassing the United States and India. The country exports around 13 MAF of water annually through cotton-based textiles, which is two to three times the amount of water needed to meet domestic demand. This overreliance on cotton poses a challenge to reigning in production due to its significant role in Pakistan’s total exports.

It is crucial to diversify Pakistan’s export offerings to reduce the strain on water resources. While export-oriented policies should be prioritized, the focus should shift toward high-value goods, services, and information technology. By promoting export diversification, Pakistan can protect its water security in the long term while generating more foreign exchange reserves than the current cotton-based exports.

Clearing the Path for Agricultural Reform

Agricultural reforms in Pakistan face several challenges, including pressure on foreign exchange reserves, the impact on national food security, resistance from elite interests, and the potential implications for farmers’ livelihoods. However, these challenges are not insurmountable.

Firstly, policies that increase exports through cotton goods offer no long-term solution for Pakistan’s economic or water security. Instead, the country should focus on exporting high-value goods, services, and information technology that are more sustainable and less water-intensive.

Secondly, reforms should be targeted at nonessential water-intensive crops, leaving essential crops for food security unaffected. The impact on subsistence farmers can be mitigated through cash transfers and training programs to facilitate the transition to less water-intensive crops.

Lastly, international financial institutions play a crucial role in incentivizing reforms by channeling funding towards water-friendly farming practices and rewarding progress in achieving water-related Sustainable Development Goals.

A Call for Action

Pakistan’s water crisis cannot be ignored any longer. Failure to address this challenge will only exacerbate existing issues and further destabilize the country. It is imperative that policymakers prioritize the public’s interests over elite agriculturalists and take iterative steps towards comprehensive agricultural reforms. By doing so and with the support of international partners, Pakistan can mitigate its water scarcity and create a more sustainable future.

Source: https://www.stimson.org