Global Rice News

**Pakistan Rice Exporters See Increase in Dollar Earnings**

In a surprising turn of events, Pakistan’s rice exports have seen a significant increase in dollar earnings. Despite the usual slow start to the fiscal year, with new crop arrivals beginning in November, the performance from July to October 2023 has caught many off guard. The early months typically have flat export growth, but this year has proved to be different.

However, it is important to note that this increase in earnings does not guarantee a record-breaking year for the rice industry. October 2022 was an exceptionally slow month for exports due to devastating floods, which brought operations to a halt. The 78 percent increase in exports for October 2023 is largely due to the low base period from the previous year.

Although nearly half a million metric tons of rice were exported in October, this record-breaking performance does not compare well when extended over the four-month period. From July to October, the quantity exported has only increased by 7.5 percent overall. While there was a positive surprise in October, the fiscal year’s performance is not exceptional. In fact, the quantity exported for the first four months of FY24 is only the third highest in the past decade and is just 11 percent higher than the average of the last ten years.

However, this does not mean that the remaining eight months will not see a spectacular export performance. While record prices may lead to increased margins for exporters, the volume does not appear promising. Basmati export volume in the first four months of FY24 is one-third lower than the peak volume during the Covid year. At this rate, basmati exports are projected to be just over 0.8 million metric tons for the entire year, a significant decrease compared to the million-plus tons exported in the late 2000s.

This trend is unfortunate, considering that out of the forecasted 9 million metric tons of rice production for the current season, up to 4.3 million metric tons is expected to be of the basmati variety, the highest ever reported. The rise in basmati production has primarily been driven by export demand, as increased prices have made it unaffordable for many domestic consumers, leading to a decline in local market demand. If this surplus does not make its way to the export market, the economy may not benefit as much as expected, apart from the significant increase in prices.

Furthermore, unless there is a climate event in major producing regions like India or China, 2023-2024 is expected to be the last year of stress in the global rice market. The top five producing regions are working towards increasing cultivation to ensure food security, and the balance is likely to return to the international market by the next marketing year, 2024-2025.

To ensure that Pakistan’s rice exports become more than just a footnote in the global rice trade, exporters need to take advantage of the current price opportunity in the export market. The potential for growth and success is there, and it is up to Pakistani exporters to seize this opportunity and establish themselves as significant players in the global rice industry.

**Source**: [BRecorder](https://www.brecorder.com)