Irregular Rains Leave Farmers in Dire Straits: Coping with Drought
Published on: December 1, 2023.
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Climate Change Impacts Rice Crop and Agriculture in Pakistan
Imran Mansha, a farmer in Phalia tehsil of Mandi Bahauddin district, is facing a distressing situation. The rice crop in his fields is still standing, preventing him from sowing wheat, as the typical dry weather required for rice harvest between October 16 and November 15 was interrupted by heavy October rains. This delay in rice harvest is not limited to Mr. Mansha’s fields; similar changes in rainfall patterns have impacted peanut farmers in northern Punjab’s Attock district, with crop yields diminishing due to excessive dry spells in recent years.
A study released by the United Nations Environment Programme has identified these changes as the result of climate change and rising carbon emissions. The study links climate change to elevated surface temperatures, disrupting traditional weather patterns including monsoon rains. It points out that greenhouse gases released from burning fossil fuels act as a blanket, trapping the sun’s heat and raising temperatures.
Climate change expert Imran Khalid further emphasizes that the use of fossil fuels in energy, transport, industries, and agriculture is the main driver of greenhouse gas emissions. He warns that the average global temperature has already risen by 1.2 degrees Celsius since the industrial age, with a predicted increase of 1.5 degrees Celcius in the mid-2030s.
Impacts of Climate Change on Weather Patterns
The changing weather patterns due to climate change have led to intense and unpredictable weather events. For instance, in 2023, Pakistan experienced the second driest August in 63 years, while in 2022, the country witnessed the wettest August in 65 years, causing devastating floods.
Yasir Hussain from Darya Lab, an advocacy organization based in Karachi, explains that such extreme weather events are directly caused by the effects of greenhouse gases, with methane having 30 percent more damaging impact on the Earth’s ozone layer than carbon dioxide. These extreme weather events are not the only consequences of climate change; melting glaciers, glacial lake outburst floods, flash floods, smog, and wildfires are also being witnessed.
Smog and Air Pollution from Rice Crop Burning
Due to the delayed harvest of rice, farmers in Pakistan resort to burning rice stubble to quickly prepare their fields for sowing wheat. While this practice allows for faster field preparation, it also contributes to smog in central parts of Punjab and high air pollution in urban centers nationwide during the winter season.
According to a study by the University of Chicago, poor air quality resulting from smog has a direct impact on life expectancy. In Lahore, life expectancy has already decreased by seven years, while in Islamabad, it has decreased by 4.3 years.
Decline in Crop Yields and Economic Impacts
Climate change is causing a significant decline in crop yields. The International Rice Research Institute notes that a 1-degree Celsius rise in night temperature may diminish rice yields by 10 percent. Basmati rice, in particular, is expected to suffer a larger reduction in yield compared to wheat, with an estimated decrease of around 18 percent by the end of the century.
The impacts of climate change are not limited to crop yields; they also extend to agriculture-based economic activities. Approximately 40 percent of Pakistan’s labor force works in the agriculture sector, which is estimated to decrease drastically in the coming decades. As a result, agricultural growth and household income are expected to decrease annually by 5.1 percent and 2 percent, respectively.
Climate-Resilient Approaches and Government Initiatives
While farmers express skepticism towards government policies, officials assure that research on climate-resilient crop varieties is underway at various agricultural institutes. The National Agriculture Research Centre in Islamabad has successfully developed a drought-resistant variety of rice with increased yield. Similar efforts are being made to develop heat-resistant wheat seeds.
The government has also devised a Strategic Agricultural Plan to help farmers combat global warming caused by climate change. The plan includes providing heat-resistant seeds and agricultural machinery. However, the implementation of this plan is still pending.
The Way Forward: Energy Transition and Local Adaptation
Experts suggest that Pakistan needs to expedite its energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables in order to reduce emissions. This transition would play a crucial role in mitigating climate change, as the energy sector is responsible for over 73 percent of global emissions.
Furthermore, climate change adaptation measures must be implemented at the grassroots level. Imran Khalid emphasizes the importance of equipping local communities, including farmers, with knowledge and financial resources to effectively mitigate the impacts of climate change at a local level.
As the average temperature in Pakistan continues to rise, urgent action is required to address the challenges posed by climate change and protect the country’s agriculture sector, livelihoods, and public health.
