Global Rice News

In the news recently, there has been talk of normalizing trade relations between India and Pakistan. The Foreign Minister of Pakistan, Muhammad Ishaq Dar, announced in a press conference that Pakistan would seriously consider restoring trade ties with India. This announcement has been met with enthusiasm from those who believe that good neighborly relations between the two countries would be beneficial. However, there are two important factors to consider before resuming trade ties with Pakistan.

Firstly, it is important to question why Pakistan suddenly wants to resume trade ties after cutting them off for five years. The truth is that Pakistan’s economy is in dire straits, relying heavily on aid and loans to survive. The country’s foreign exchange reserves are so low that they can only cover two weeks’ worth of imports. Inflation rates have soared, and the Pakistani rupee is at a record low against the US dollar. The country’s GDP growth rate is also very low, resulting in a decline in per capita income. Given these circumstances, it is clear that Pakistan stands to benefit more from trade with India than vice versa.

On the other hand, India has little to gain from trade with Pakistan. In the last available trade data from 2018-19, the total trade between the two countries amounted to a mere $2 billion. This is a negligible amount compared to India’s overall foreign trade. The Pakistani economy is so insignificant to India that the lack of trade between the two countries would go unnoticed.

Another argument put forth by proponents of trade with Pakistan is that it would generate goodwill among the Pakistani population. However, this is wishful thinking. Decades of indoctrination and animosity towards India have deeply ingrained the belief that India is an eternal enemy in the minds of the average Pakistani. Even if India were to extend a generous bailout to Pakistan, it is unlikely to change the deep-rooted hostility towards India.

It is true that there is a growing segment of Pakistani civil society that believes Pakistan should abandon its animosity towards India. They recognize that using cross-border terrorism as a tool of statecraft has only brought destruction upon their own country. However, the military, which holds immense power in Pakistan, is unlikely to change its stance. As long as Pakistan treats India as an enemy, the military can maintain its control over the country. Any attempts to improve relations with India could even lead to terrorist attacks.

In conclusion, while the idea of normalizing trade relations with Pakistan may seem appealing, it is essential to consider the realities of the situation. Given Pakistan’s economic struggles and deeply rooted animosity towards India, it is best for India to focus on its own interests and refrain from resuming trade ties with Pakistan.

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