Global Rice News

Weather Models Indicate Weak La Nina in 2nd Half of 2024

Global weather patterns are expected to transition from El Nino to La Nina in the second half of 2024, according to meteorologists and agricultural analysts. La Nina typically brings higher levels of precipitation to Australia, Southeast Asia, and India, while drier weather is anticipated in grain and oilseed producing regions of the Americas.

While it is still too early to predict the intensity or impact of this weather pattern on crops, meteorologists suggest that a mild occurrence of La Nina is on the horizon. This occurs when the surface ocean waters off the tropical west coast of South America cool off.

Chris Hyde, a meteorologist at U.S.-based Maxar, explains that “the vast majority of weather models are pointing towards a weak La Nina in the second half of the year or towards the last quarter. One out of maybe 25 weather models is showing a strong La Nina.”

After three consecutive La Nina years, last year’s El Nino brought hot and dry weather to Asia, while parts of the Americas experienced heavier rainfall. This boosted farm output prospects in Argentina and the southern U.S. Plains. However, India, the world’s largest rice supplier, restricted exports due to a poor monsoon, and Australia, the second-largest wheat exporter, experienced reduced output.

Analysts suggest that La Nina could reverse these conditions. Wet weather resulting from La Nina could boost rice and palm oil yields in Southeast Asia, while a normal Indian monsoon would increase production and farm incomes.

Maxar’s Hyde explains that “maybe for southern India there could be a little bit of lingering dryness, but for the vast majority of the country – the center and the north, in particular – slightly above-normal rains are expected.”

In the United States, climatologists predict that La Nina will arrive in late summer or early fall. This timing could lead to a dry autumn in the Corn Belt, benefiting farmers by speeding up the harvest. However, it may also cause lower water levels in Midwest rivers, affecting barge movement and grazing pastures.

Mark Brusberg, chief meteorologist at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, states that “the expectations are in some cases opposite of what you would see in an El Nino.”

The U.S. National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Centre will issue its monthly weather outlook for the northern hemisphere on Thursday, while the Japan weather bureau’s El Nino/La Nina forecast is scheduled for Friday.

Source: marketscreener.com