Global Rice Prices Expected to Stay High Until 2025, World Bank Predicts
Published on: November 1, 2023.
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Global Rice Prices Expected to Remain High until 2025, World Bank Report Finds
According to a recent World Bank Global Commodity Outlook report, global rice prices are predicted to remain high until 2025 due to export restrictions from major rice-producing countries and the potential threat of El Niño. The report also highlights the concentration of rice production and exports, as well as the policy responses from exporters and importers, as contributing factors to the expected price increase. In 2023, global rice prices were already 28% higher than in 2022, and they are projected to rise by another 6% in 2024.
This news is concerning for India, as the country is experiencing a drop in domestic kharif rice production in 2023, primarily because of a shortfall in the monsoon season. To address this, the Indian government has already imposed restrictions on rice exports, leading to a significant reduction in global supplies.
The report also indicates that agricultural prices, overall, are expected to decrease by 7% in 2023 and a further 2% in both 2024 and 2025 due to ample supply. However, maize prices are forecasted to end this year at 22% below 2022 levels and continue to decline by 8% and 4% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Global wheat prices are also projected to decrease by an average of 20% in 2023 compared to 2022, with further declines of approximately 3% and 5% expected in 2024 and 2025.
The report touch issues on other commodities as well. Sugar and cocoa prices are anticipated to decrease from their 2023 highs, while fruit prices are likely to remain high in 2024 due to supply shortfalls caused by weather-related issues. Fertilizer prices are expected to decrease as more supplies become available online, but they are anticipated to stay above historical averages due to supply constraints and China’s export restrictions.
In addition to rice, the report also examines the cotton sector. The Cotton Association of India estimates that domestic cotton production for the 2023-24 season is expected to decrease by 7.23% due to drought and pest attacks in major growing regions. The Indian Sugar Mills Association also provided its first estimate for the 2023-24 sugar season, projecting gross production of around 33.7 million tonnes, with consumption expected to be around 27.8 million tonnes.
Overall, the World Bank report paints a challenging picture for global rice prices, with no significant price reduction expected until 2025. This news highlights the importance of rice exports, particularly for countries like Pakistan, which is a major rice exporter. To learn more about rice exporters in Pakistan, rice suppliers, rice mills, and rice prices, visit [this source](https://www.hasrice.com/pakistan-rice-exporters/).
