Global Rice News

Global Rice Prices Expected to Rise in Second Quarter

The price of Thai white rice has been quoted at $601 per tonne as of March 27. Rice exporters are anticipating an increase in global prices during the second quarter due to the impact of the El Niño climate phenomenon and India’s restrictions on rice exports.

In July 2023, the Indian government implemented a ban on the export of non-basmati white rice, with further restrictions on basmati and parboiled rice. These measures were taken in response to rising domestic prices and concerns about potential shortages caused by weather conditions. Since the ban, global rice prices have risen by 15-25%.

According to Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, rice exports totaled 2.5 million tonnes in the first quarter. Exporters have been focused on delivering large quantities of white rice to major Southeast Asian markets such as Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia, as well as Africa and the Middle East.

Key importers of white and fragrant rice in the US and Asia are expected to have strong demand for these varieties to compensate for reduced domestic supply amid record-high global prices. Thailand’s rice supply remains sufficient and prices are competitive due to the weakened baht against the dollar, leading importers to choose Thai rice.

As of March 27, Thai white rice was priced at $601 per tonne, while Vietnamese and Pakistani rice were priced in the range of $582-586 and $605-609 per tonne, respectively. Parboiled rice from Thailand was priced at $606 per tonne, while Indian and Pakistani parboiled rice were priced in the range of $551-555 and $618-622 per tonne, respectively.

Export volume may slightly decrease in the second quarter due to increased competition, as Vietnam’s harvest season begins in March. However, as long as India maintains its ban on white rice exports, Thai rice prices are expected to remain relatively high in the first half of this year, according to Mr. Chookiat.

It is projected that rice exports for the year will reach 8 million tonnes, with an estimated value of 180 billion baht, surpassing the previous projection of 7.5 million tonnes and an estimated value of 150 billion baht. Additionally, Indonesia is expected to continue importing rice this year, with a total of up to 3.6 million tonnes, surpassing the earlier forecast of 2 million tonnes. Thailand recently won a bid to supply 100,000 tonnes of rice to Indonesia, with Pakistan and Vietnam also securing contracts.

Source: Bangkok Post