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Forecasts for Electricity Output, Capital Costs, and CO2 Emissions in Pakistan’s Energy Transition

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Pakistan is undergoing a remarkable energy transition, with a shift from fossil fuels to renewable sources. The nation’s projected power output is expected to meet the country’s energy demands until 2053. Let’s dive into the details of this transition and explore the future of Pakistan’s energy sector.

Electricity Demand and Consumption

Figures 6a–c, 7a–c, and 8a–c present forecasts for electricity output, capital costs, and CO2 emissions in Pakistan from 2023 to 2053. The total net electricity demand, which considers factors like auxiliary systems, self-consumption, transmission losses, and distribution losses, shows notable variations. The projected energy demand indicates a deceleration in consumption, reaching 955.14 TWh by 2053.

However, Pakistan’s total power output is predicted to be 1402.97 TWh, allowing for surplus electricity and ensuring the country’s energy needs are met until 2053. The residential sector has the highest electrical demand, followed by the industrial, commercial, and public service sectors. This transition will lead to a remarkable increase in renewable energy sources and a decrease in CO2 emissions.

Pakistan’s Energy Transition

Pakistan’s energy generation is rapidly evolving to enable a transition to renewables. Fossil fuels, which currently dominate the energy mix at 62.1% in 2023, will decline to 81.3% by 2053. The aim is to achieve zero CO2 emissions by 2060. Solid waste is emerging as a cost-effective source of electricity, accounting for a significant percentage of the energy mix from 2023 to 2053.

Hydropower, especially in the early stages of the transition, will play a crucial role, followed by wind and solar power. By 2053, wind and solar energy are projected to contribute 16.05% and 6.48%, respectively, as Pakistan moves towards a more renewable energy-driven future.

Policies for Sustainable Energy Governance

Pakistan must establish energy policies that serve as the foundation for sustainable energy governance. These policies aim to lower emissions, improve energy efficiency, and support the transition to renewable energy sources. It is crucial to understand the impact of renewable energy and energy policies on Pakistan’s energy governance.

The energy industry faces various challenges, and environmental stewardship cannot be overlooked. Global energy policy is urgently needed to address climate change, geopolitical tensions, and economic fragility. A radical revamp of the energy system is essential to realize a sustainable energy future.

Promoting Renewable Energy for Economic Growth

Sustainable economic growth is closely linked to the use of renewable energy sources. Clean energy can reduce CO2 emissions and contribute to economic development. The transition from fossil fuels to cleaner energy sources can have positive outcomes, such as increased employment opportunities, energy security, and economic growth.

Regulatory interventions should promote clean energy as a viable alternative to conventional energy sectors. This approach can lead to a reduction in carbon emissions, improved air quality, and enhanced economic resilience. Encouraging clean energy also contributes to global efforts to mitigate climate change.

Challenges and Future Research

While renewable energy has significant potential, it is essential to consider potential challenges. Overexploitation of resources, such as wood and agricultural products, must be avoided to maintain environmental integrity. Policymakers should ensure that clean energy policies align with objectives like mitigating climate change, enhancing energy access, and promoting economic growth.

Future research can explore the impact of COVID-19 on the usage of renewable energy sources, including solid waste. Additionally, studying other renewable energy sources like solar, wind, and hydropower will provide a comprehensive understanding of Pakistan’s energy transition.

Source: Nature