Global Rice News

Pakistan’s rice exports have achieved a milestone by reaching $2.1 billion in the first seven months of FY24, surpassing the total earnings for the previous fiscal year, 2022-23. This substantial increase in earnings indicates that annual rice earnings for the current fiscal year are likely to cross the three-billion-dollar mark, which has never been achieved before in history.

The growth in rice exports has played a significant role in boosting the overall goods exports sector, which recorded a record-high earning of $17.8 billion during the 7MFY24. This surpasses the previous peak goods exports of 7MFY22. It’s worth noting that FY22 was the last exceptional year of economic growth in the country, where goods exports reached $32 billion. Unfortunately, it fell to $28 billion the following year (FY23).

However, while rice exports have shown remarkable performance, it is unlikely that they will be able to compensate for the losses in the textile exports sector. The 7MFY24 trend suggests that the textile industry may struggle to maintain export earnings at the levels of the previous year. Therefore, the additional earnings of $1-$1.5 billion from rice exporters can only partially make up for the nearly $3 billion decline in revenue from the leading export group compared to FY22. In FY22, the textile and garment industry recorded export earnings of $19.5 billion, which declined by 13% the following year.

Despite the challenges, the impressive performance of the rice industry amid severe economic adversity deserves recognition. Unlike FY22, when the textile industry flourished due to favorable business conditions, rice exports have flourished despite record borrowing rates, frequent energy tariff hikes, and declining commodity prices globally.

However, it is important to note that the current success of the rice industry may not be sustainable. The previous expectation that India would lift the ban on rice exports during the current fiscal year to manage inflation is now uncertain. It is likely that the ban will continue until after the general elections and the establishment of the BJP government. Once the ban is lifted, South Asian rice prices, including Pakistan’s, may experience a significant decline in a matter of weeks or even days.

Moreover, if India delays lifting the ban and decides to monitor the situation until the next harvest season in November 2024, Pakistani rice farmers may face challenges as they would have planted more rice acres in anticipation of another successful year of exports. If coupled with a fragile domestic economic situation, including high financing rates and muted domestic demand, the local rice industry could face a different financial performance in the coming year.

In conclusion, the current fiscal year has been favorable for rice exports, but challenges lie ahead. With the uncertainties surrounding India’s export ban and the global rice market, the future of Pakistan’s rice industry remains uncertain. It is crucial for the industry to navigate through these challenges and continue to strive for success.

Source: [BRecorder](https://www.brecorder.com){:target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow”}