Global Rice News

Boosting government spending and consumption, addressing geopolitical uncertainties, and maintaining strong economic growth are expected to be the key factors shaping the Indian economy in the new year, according to economists. After a 7.7% expansion in the April to September period this year, the economy is predicted to continue growing at a comparable pace in the coming quarters. The chief policy adviser at EY, D.K. Srivastava, forecasts a 7% expansion in the Indian economy from January to December 2024, with growth expected to be around 6.5-7.0% in FY25. The Indian economy remained a bright spot in the world in 2023, outpacing global economic growth. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) revised its projection for India’s economic growth to 7% in FY24, and other firms like Morgan Stanley, Citi, and Goldman Sachs also raised their GDP growth forecasts for India. However, challenges such as high inflation and uneven global growth remain. Inflation measured by the consumer price index (CPI) saw a sharp spike this year but fell within the RBI’s tolerance range of 4-6% between September and November. On the trade front, Indian exports were impacted by slowing global growth and consumption, as well as export bans and restrictions on various commodities. However, services exports turned positive in September and merchandise exports in October. The global economy, especially major advanced economies like the United States and Europe, is expected to rebound, which will benefit India’s export growth. The Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) estimates that India’s merchandise export will grow by 6.3% year-on-year to $111.2 billion during the third quarter of FY24. Furthermore, India is actively engaged in trade negotiations with the European Union and the United Kingdom, while also working on resolving a WTO import duty dispute with the EU. Overall, despite challenges and uncertainties, there is optimism about India’s economic prospects in the coming year.

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