Global Rice News

India, the world’s leading rice exporter, is expected to maintain restrictions on overseas sales until next year. This move is likely to keep rice prices close to their highest levels since the 2008 food crisis. Despite lower prices and ample stockpiles, India has tightened restrictions on rice exports to curb domestic price increases and protect Indian consumers.

Sonal Varma, the chief economist for India and Asia ex-Japan at Nomura Holdings Inc., stated, “As long as domestic rice prices face upward pressure, the restrictions are likely to stay. Even after the elections, if domestic rice prices do not stabilize, these measures are likely to get extended.” The Indian government has imposed export duties and minimum prices, and certain rice varieties such as broken and non-basmati white rice cannot be exported. As a result, rice prices surged to a 15-year high in August, leading some importing nations to hold back purchases.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government aims to ensure sufficient rice supplies domestically and counteract price surges. The export restrictions are likely to remain in place until the next election. The arrival of El Niño may further tighten the global rice market, especially as world rice stockpiles are projected to decline for the third consecutive year. Thailand, the second-largest rice exporter, expects its paddy output to decrease by 6% in 2023-24 due to dry weather.

Joseph Glauber, a senior fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, mentioned the challenge in finding alternative rice suppliers to replace India’s exports. This situation adds to concerns over India’s crop, as the monsoon-sown harvest this year may experience a nearly 4% drop due to patchy rains. Maintaining adequate supplies for India’s food program, which benefits over 800 million people, is a top government priority. The government recently extended the program by five years.

While India’s policies might benefit its own consumers, vulnerable populations in Africa and Asia may face difficulties due to the restricted global rice supply. Rice inflation in the Philippines reached a 14-year high in September, and Indonesia is increasing imports to control prices ahead of its presidential election in 2024. West Africa, particularly Nigeria, has experienced significant price increases for rice, a crucial ingredient in the popular dish jollof.

The US rice industry believes that India’s export ban is unnecessary and that the country currently has sufficient stocks. Peter Bachmann, president and CEO of USA Rice, stated, “While our exporters (and other major exporters in Asia) are benefiting in the short term, when India lifts the export ban in the coming months, they will once again significantly distort world prices.”

Source: [Business Standard](https://www.business-standard.com)